Evidence period 03 · honest date label

2024–2025 anchors

12 records. Six Florida within-grade anchors plus six deliberately conventions-skewed Massachusetts and Texas robustness anchors.

These are not 2026 samples, state medians, national averages, or classroom homework.

What current tasks make visible

Every retained prompt supplies one or more texts and requires source-based argument, exposition, comparison, literary analysis, or information. Every full response states a controlling claim and uses source detail. Topic blocks and thesis/body/conclusion structures are usually visible.

Current work exposes literary, environmental, social, and institutional abstraction, along with explicit counterclaim and rebuttal in Florida grade 9. Technical diction sometimes sharpens a relationship and sometimes outruns it; source-derived language is not automatically independent lexical command.

The recurring pressure point: warrant

Agency comments repeatedly distinguish relevant quotation from a complete explanation of why it proves the claim. A scooter quotation does not answer the named objection; cave detail expands into a broad societal benefit; a style contrast needs further explanation; a governance paraphrase leaves one connection unclear.

Observed: these writers usually retrieve relevant evidence and make claims, while explanation can restate, generalize, or leap. Not established: a national prevalence or historical “evidence gain.”

Conditions matter

Florida normally allows 120 minutes and extension, with a planning sheet. Massachusetts sessions are untimed or individually unknown. Texas essay-specific time is unknown within a longer test. Responses are typed or usually computer-based, planning/review is available, and individual accommodations are undisclosed.

Florida, 2024 Massachusetts, and Texas document machine/human scoring systems, while each published response’s route is often unknown. Automated scoring is not AI-assisted composition. Secure systems prohibit outside AI, but lack of a flag cannot prove unaided work.

Calibration lanes

Florida’s six 3/3/3 papers are explicitly within grade-level range. Massachusetts has midpoint Idea Development but top Conventions; Texas has partial Organization/Development but top Conventions. Those six test whether observations survive beyond Florida; they do not form a cleaner pooled core.

Strongest limitations

Primary present lane

Florida within-grade anchors

F9-1 · 2024–2025

Source Based Argument

Cities should allow scooters for convenience, traffic reduction, business benefit, and activity.

Full-response codingwithin grade-level performance

F9-2 · 2024–2025

Source Based Argument

Cities should not allow rentals because shared-space conflicts create hazards.

Full-response codingwithin grade-level performance

F9-3 · 2024–2025

Source Based Argument

Cities should allow scooters for traffic, environmental, and convenience benefits.

Full-response codingwithin grade-level performance

F10-1 · 2024–2025

Source Based Exposition

Cave exploration yields research, historical knowledge, and rare experience.

Full-response codingwithin grade-level performance

F10-2 · 2024–2025

Source Based Exposition

Caves offer unusual experience, historical knowledge, and scientific benefit.

Full-response codingwithin grade-level performance

F10-3 · 2024–2025

Source Based Exposition

Caves merit exploration for mystery, historical record, and visual wonder.

Full-response codingwithin grade-level performance

Separate robustness lane

Massachusetts / Texas anchors

MA25-1 · 2024–2025

Source Based Comparative Analysis

Henderson is practical/direct while Steinbeck is empathic/descriptive in developing environmental conflict.

Full-response codingmidpoint idea development; top conventions

MA25-2 · 2024–2025

Source Based Argument

Urban and vertical farming benefit communities and individual health.

Full-response codingmidpoint idea development; top conventions

MA24-1 · 2024–2025

Source Based Comparative Analysis

Both narrators discover that their prior view of the world was limited, literally and figuratively.

Full-response codingmidpoint idea development; top conventions

MA24-2 · 2024–2025

Source Based Argument

Listening improves conversation, relationships, reciprocity, and disclosure.

Full-response codingmidpoint idea development; top conventions

TX24-1 · 2024–2025

Source Based Literary Analysis

Contact with Mifflin reveals that freedom and independence matter to McGill.

Full-response codingpartial development; top conventions

TX24-2 · 2024–2025

Source Based Informational

Multinational preservation and regulated tourism make Antarctica unusual.

Full-response codingpartial development; top conventions